NHL-ML-Draft

ML-Draft output for F drafted in 2015. ML-Draft version: 2019.1.0.

Data can be missing if there is a lack of source data, or if certain aspects of the overall dataset are not rich enough to make a prediction.

Projected NHL career data is extrapolated, but based on real to-date statistics. Predicted NHL data is data that was predicted using only pre-draft information.

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Projected NHL PPG Predicted NHL PPG Actual Overall Draft
Connor McDavid (more) 1.427003 0.572458 1
Similar players:Similar superstar:Probabilities:
  • Miss: 6%
  • Star: 21%
Jack Eichel (more) 1.014412 0.818919 2
Similar players:Similar superstar:Probabilities:
  • Miss: 7%
  • Star: 52%
Dylan Strome (more) 0.716438 0.628062 3
Similar players:Similar superstar:Probabilities:
  • Miss: 12%
  • Star: 18%
Mitch Marner (more) 1.088071 0.553291 4
Similar players:Similar superstar:Probabilities:
  • Miss: 15%
  • Star: 22%
Pavel Zacha (more) 0.366534 0.177623 6
Similar players:Similar superstar:Probabilities:
  • Miss: 42%
  • Star: 0%
Timo Meier (more) 0.778458 0.590355 9
Similar players:Similar superstar:Probabilities:
  • Miss: 24%
  • Star: 22%
Mikko Rantanen (more) 1.089049 0.199164 10
Similar players:Similar superstar:Probabilities:
  • Miss: 39%
  • Star: 1%
Lawson Crouse (more) 0.293103 0.249336 11
Similar players:Similar superstar:Probabilities:
  • Miss: 36%
  • Star: 0%
Jake DeBrusk (more) 0.614613 0.416056 14
Similar players:Similar superstar:Probabilities:
  • Miss: 36%
  • Star: 3%
Zachary Senyshyn (more) 0.500000 0.165249 15
Similar players:Similar superstar:Probabilities:
  • Miss: 43%
  • Star: 1%
Mathew Barzal (more) 1.006083 0.416844 16
Similar players:Similar superstar:Probabilities:
  • Miss: 33%
  • Star: 6%
Kyle Connor (more) 0.786571 0.358159 17
Similar players:Similar superstar:Probabilities:
  • Miss: 22%
  • Star: 5%
Evgeny Svechnikov (more) 0.000000 0.000000 19
Similar players:Similar superstar:Probabilities:
  • Miss: 46%
  • Star: 2%
Joel Eriksson Ek (more) 0.220588 0.000000 20
Similar players:Similar superstar:Probabilities:
  • Miss: 56%
  • Star: 1%
Colin White (more) 0.566465 0.000000 21
Similar players:Similar superstar:Probabilities:
  • Miss: 45%
  • Star: 3%
Brock Boeser (more) 0.815029 0.635387 23
Similar players:Similar superstar:Probabilities:
  • Miss: 11%
  • Star: 20%
Travis Konecny (more) 0.580427 0.425295 24
Similar players:Similar superstar:Probabilities:
  • Miss: 33%
  • Star: 1%
Jack Roslovic (more) 0.317241 0.408901 25
Similar players:Similar superstar:Probabilities:
  • Miss: 23%
  • Star: 14%
Anthony Beauvillier (more) 0.478372 0.387488 28
Similar players:Similar superstar:Probabilities:
  • Miss: 36%
  • Star: 7%
Nick Merkley (more) 0.000000 0.201676 30
Similar players:Similar superstar:Probabilities:
  • Miss: 43%
  • Star: 0%
Christian Fischer (more) 0.403042 0.629334 32
Similar players:Similar superstar:Probabilities:
  • Miss: 17%
  • Star: 24%
Mitchell Stephens (more) 0.000000 0.405302 33
Similar players:Similar superstar:Probabilities:
  • Miss: 38%
  • Star: 1%
Gabriel Gagne (more) 0.000000 0.000000 36
Similar players:Similar superstar:Probabilities:
  • Miss: 62%
  • Star: 2%
Paul Bittner (more) 0.000000 0.209670 38
Similar players:Similar superstar:Probabilities:
  • Miss: 39%
  • Star: 1%
A.J. Greer (more) 0.173410 0.000000 39
Similar players:Similar superstar:Probabilities:
  • Miss: 49%
  • Star: 3%
Jakob Forsbacka Karlsson (more) 0.320158 0.213396 45
Similar players:Similar superstar:Probabilities:
  • Miss: 29%
  • Star: 2%
Daniel Sprong (more) 0.357504 0.384270 46
Similar players:Similar superstar:Probabilities:
  • Miss: 35%
  • Star: 13%
Jansen Harkins (more) 0.000000 0.409954 47
Similar players:Similar superstar:Probabilities:
  • Miss: 41%
  • Star: 2%
Filip Chlapik (more) 0.200000 0.400443 48
Similar players:Similar superstar:Probabilities:
  • Miss: 31%
  • Star: 18%
Roope Hintz (more) 0.379310 0.000000 49
Similar players:Similar superstar:Probabilities:
  • Miss: 54%
  • Star: 1%
Jordan Greenway (more) 0.295238 0.414432 50
Similar players:Similar superstar:Probabilities:
  • Miss: 32%
  • Star: 2%
Kevin Stenlund (more) 0.000000 0.000000 58
Similar players:Similar superstar:Probabilities:
  • Miss: 67%
  • Star: 0%
Blake Speers (more) 0.000000 0.380118 67
Similar players:Similar superstar:Probabilities:
  • Miss: 35%
  • Star: 2%
Anthony Cirelli (more) 0.478836 0.000000 72
Similar players:Similar superstar:Probabilities:
  • Miss: 50%
  • Star: 0%
Jens Looke (more) 0.000000 0.000000 83
Similar players:Similar superstar:Probabilities:
  • Miss: 63%
  • Star: 0%
Lukas Vejdemo (more) 0.000000 0.000000 87
Similar players:Similar superstar:Probabilities:
  • Miss: 60%
  • Star: 0%
Aleksi Saarela (more) 0.000000 0.000000 89
Similar players:Similar superstar:Probabilities:
  • Miss: 51%
  • Star: 1%
Nicolas Roy (more) 0.000000 0.000000 96
Similar players:Similar superstar:Probabilities:
  • Miss: 57%
  • Star: 6%
Austin Wagner (more) 0.338710 0.000000 99
Similar players:Similar superstar:Probabilities:
  • Miss: 52%
  • Star: 0%
Anthony Richard (more) 0.000000 0.000000 100
Similar players:Similar superstar:Probabilities:
  • Miss: 46%
  • Star: 1%
Filip Ahl (more) 0.000000 0.000000 109
Similar players:Similar superstar:Probabilities:
  • Miss: 50%
  • Star: 0%
Jonne Tammela (more) 0.000000 0.000000 118
Similar players:Similar superstar:Probabilities:
  • Miss: 60%
  • Star: 0%
Daniel Bernhardt (more) 0.000000 0.185923 119
Similar players:Similar superstar:Probabilities:
  • Miss: 44%
  • Star: 1%
Mathieu Joseph (more) 0.371429 0.000000 120
Similar players:Similar superstar:Probabilities:
  • Miss: 57%
  • Star: 3%
Conor Garland (more) 0.382979 0.000000 123
Similar players:Similar superstar:Probabilities:
  • Miss: 67%
  • Star: 0%
Dmytro Timashov (more) 0.000000 0.000000 125
Similar players:Similar superstar:Probabilities:
  • Miss: 48%
  • Star: 4%
Kirill Kaprizov (more) 0.000000 0.000000 135
Similar players:Similar superstar:Probabilities:
  • Miss: 51%
  • Star: 5%
Pavel Karnaukhov (more) 0.000000 0.228607 136
Similar players:Similar superstar:Probabilities:
  • Miss: 42%
  • Star: 0%
Troy Terry (more) 0.403448 0.000000 148
Similar players:Similar superstar:Probabilities:
  • Miss: 56%
  • Star: 0%
Adam Gaudette (more) 0.212181 0.230185 149
Similar players:Similar superstar:Probabilities:
  • Miss: 40%
  • Star: 0%
Brett Seney (more) 0.254902 0.000000 157
Similar players:Similar superstar:Probabilities:
  • Miss: 51%
  • Star: 0%
Cooper Marody (more) 0.000000 0.382214 158
Similar players:Similar superstar:Probabilities:
  • Miss: 16%
  • Star: 11%
Roy Radke (more) 0.000000 0.000000 164
Similar players:Similar superstar:Probabilities:
  • Miss: 53%
  • Star: 0%
Andrew Mangiapane (more) 0.288177 0.213116 166
Similar players:Similar superstar:Probabilities:
  • Miss: 38%
  • Star: 0%
Mason Appleton (more) 0.277778 0.000000 168
Similar players:Similar superstar:Probabilities:
  • Miss: 48%
  • Star: 0%
Gustav Olhaver (more) 0.000000 0.224941 191
Similar players:Similar superstar:Probabilities:
  • Miss: 44%
  • Star: 0%
John Dahlstrom (more) 0.000000 0.375490 211
Similar players:Similar superstar:Probabilities:
  • Miss: 27%
  • Star: 16%
Projected NHL PPG Predicted NHL PPG
C. McDavid (more) 1.427003 0.572458
Similar players:Similar superstar:Probabilities:
  • Miss: 6%
  • Star: 21%
J. Eichel (more) 1.014412 0.818919
Similar players:Similar superstar:Probabilities:
  • Miss: 7%
  • Star: 52%
D. Strome (more) 0.716438 0.628062
Similar players:Similar superstar:Probabilities:
  • Miss: 12%
  • Star: 18%
M. Marner (more) 1.088071 0.553291
Similar players:Similar superstar:Probabilities:
  • Miss: 15%
  • Star: 22%
P. Zacha (more) 0.366534 0.177623
Similar players:Similar superstar:Probabilities:
  • Miss: 42%
  • Star: 0%
T. Meier (more) 0.778458 0.590355
Similar players:Similar superstar:Probabilities:
  • Miss: 24%
  • Star: 22%
M. Rantanen (more) 1.089049 0.199164
Similar players:Similar superstar:Probabilities:
  • Miss: 39%
  • Star: 1%
L. Crouse (more) 0.293103 0.249336
Similar players:Similar superstar:Probabilities:
  • Miss: 36%
  • Star: 0%
J. DeBrusk (more) 0.614613 0.416056
Similar players:Similar superstar:Probabilities:
  • Miss: 36%
  • Star: 3%
Z. Senyshyn (more) 0.500000 0.165249
Similar players:Similar superstar:Probabilities:
  • Miss: 43%
  • Star: 1%
M. Barzal (more) 1.006083 0.416844
Similar players:Similar superstar:Probabilities:
  • Miss: 33%
  • Star: 6%
K. Connor (more) 0.786571 0.358159
Similar players:Similar superstar:Probabilities:
  • Miss: 22%
  • Star: 5%
E. Svechnikov (more) 0.000000 0.000000
Similar players:Similar superstar:Probabilities:
  • Miss: 46%
  • Star: 2%
J. Eriksson (more) 0.220588 0.000000
Similar players:Similar superstar:Probabilities:
  • Miss: 56%
  • Star: 1%
C. White (more) 0.566465 0.000000
Similar players:Similar superstar:Probabilities:
  • Miss: 45%
  • Star: 3%
B. Boeser (more) 0.815029 0.635387
Similar players:Similar superstar:Probabilities:
  • Miss: 11%
  • Star: 20%
T. Konecny (more) 0.580427 0.425295
Similar players:Similar superstar:Probabilities:
  • Miss: 33%
  • Star: 1%
J. Roslovic (more) 0.317241 0.408901
Similar players:Similar superstar:Probabilities:
  • Miss: 23%
  • Star: 14%
A. Beauvillier (more) 0.478372 0.387488
Similar players:Similar superstar:Probabilities:
  • Miss: 36%
  • Star: 7%
N. Merkley (more) 0.000000 0.201676
Similar players:Similar superstar:Probabilities:
  • Miss: 43%
  • Star: 0%
C. Fischer (more) 0.403042 0.629334
Similar players:Similar superstar:Probabilities:
  • Miss: 17%
  • Star: 24%
M. Stephens (more) 0.000000 0.405302
Similar players:Similar superstar:Probabilities:
  • Miss: 38%
  • Star: 1%
G. Gagne (more) 0.000000 0.000000
Similar players:Similar superstar:Probabilities:
  • Miss: 62%
  • Star: 2%
P. Bittner (more) 0.000000 0.209670
Similar players:Similar superstar:Probabilities:
  • Miss: 39%
  • Star: 1%
A. Greer (more) 0.173410 0.000000
Similar players:Similar superstar:Probabilities:
  • Miss: 49%
  • Star: 3%
J. Forsbacka (more) 0.320158 0.213396
Similar players:Similar superstar:Probabilities:
  • Miss: 29%
  • Star: 2%
D. Sprong (more) 0.357504 0.384270
Similar players:Similar superstar:Probabilities:
  • Miss: 35%
  • Star: 13%
J. Harkins (more) 0.000000 0.409954
Similar players:Similar superstar:Probabilities:
  • Miss: 41%
  • Star: 2%
F. Chlapik (more) 0.200000 0.400443
Similar players:Similar superstar:Probabilities:
  • Miss: 31%
  • Star: 18%
R. Hintz (more) 0.379310 0.000000
Similar players:Similar superstar:Probabilities:
  • Miss: 54%
  • Star: 1%
J. Greenway (more) 0.295238 0.414432
Similar players:Similar superstar:Probabilities:
  • Miss: 32%
  • Star: 2%
K. Stenlund (more) 0.000000 0.000000
Similar players:Similar superstar:Probabilities:
  • Miss: 67%
  • Star: 0%
B. Speers (more) 0.000000 0.380118
Similar players:Similar superstar:Probabilities:
  • Miss: 35%
  • Star: 2%
A. Cirelli (more) 0.478836 0.000000
Similar players:Similar superstar:Probabilities:
  • Miss: 50%
  • Star: 0%
J. Looke (more) 0.000000 0.000000
Similar players:Similar superstar:Probabilities:
  • Miss: 63%
  • Star: 0%
L. Vejdemo (more) 0.000000 0.000000
Similar players:Similar superstar:Probabilities:
  • Miss: 60%
  • Star: 0%
A. Saarela (more) 0.000000 0.000000
Similar players:Similar superstar:Probabilities:
  • Miss: 51%
  • Star: 1%
N. Roy (more) 0.000000 0.000000
Similar players:Similar superstar:Probabilities:
  • Miss: 57%
  • Star: 6%
A. Wagner (more) 0.338710 0.000000
Similar players:Similar superstar:Probabilities:
  • Miss: 52%
  • Star: 0%
A. Richard (more) 0.000000 0.000000
Similar players:Similar superstar:Probabilities:
  • Miss: 46%
  • Star: 1%
F. Ahl (more) 0.000000 0.000000
Similar players:Similar superstar:Probabilities:
  • Miss: 50%
  • Star: 0%
J. Tammela (more) 0.000000 0.000000
Similar players:Similar superstar:Probabilities:
  • Miss: 60%
  • Star: 0%
D. Bernhardt (more) 0.000000 0.185923
Similar players:Similar superstar:Probabilities:
  • Miss: 44%
  • Star: 1%
M. Joseph (more) 0.371429 0.000000
Similar players:Similar superstar:Probabilities:
  • Miss: 57%
  • Star: 3%
C. Garland (more) 0.382979 0.000000
Similar players:Similar superstar:Probabilities:
  • Miss: 67%
  • Star: 0%
D. Timashov (more) 0.000000 0.000000
Similar players:Similar superstar:Probabilities:
  • Miss: 48%
  • Star: 4%
K. Kaprizov (more) 0.000000 0.000000
Similar players:Similar superstar:Probabilities:
  • Miss: 51%
  • Star: 5%
P. Karnaukhov (more) 0.000000 0.228607
Similar players:Similar superstar:Probabilities:
  • Miss: 42%
  • Star: 0%
T. Terry (more) 0.403448 0.000000
Similar players:Similar superstar:Probabilities:
  • Miss: 56%
  • Star: 0%
A. Gaudette (more) 0.212181 0.230185
Similar players:Similar superstar:Probabilities:
  • Miss: 40%
  • Star: 0%
B. Seney (more) 0.254902 0.000000
Similar players:Similar superstar:Probabilities:
  • Miss: 51%
  • Star: 0%
C. Marody (more) 0.000000 0.382214
Similar players:Similar superstar:Probabilities:
  • Miss: 16%
  • Star: 11%
R. Radke (more) 0.000000 0.000000
Similar players:Similar superstar:Probabilities:
  • Miss: 53%
  • Star: 0%
A. Mangiapane (more) 0.288177 0.213116
Similar players:Similar superstar:Probabilities:
  • Miss: 38%
  • Star: 0%
M. Appleton (more) 0.277778 0.000000
Similar players:Similar superstar:Probabilities:
  • Miss: 48%
  • Star: 0%
G. Olhaver (more) 0.000000 0.224941
Similar players:Similar superstar:Probabilities:
  • Miss: 44%
  • Star: 0%
J. Dahlstrom (more) 0.000000 0.375490
Similar players:Similar superstar:Probabilities:
  • Miss: 27%
  • Star: 16%

Correct classifications: 18.0 / 57
Nearly correct classifications: 21.0 / 57
Misses: 18.0 / 57
False Positives: 26.0
False Negatives: 13.0
We could have estimated 24.0 / 57 correctly by guessing all misses.