NHL-ML-Draft

ML-Draft output for F drafted in 2014. ML-Draft version: 2019.1.0.

Data can be missing if there is a lack of source data, or if certain aspects of the overall dataset are not rich enough to make a prediction.

Projected NHL career data is extrapolated, but based on real to-date statistics. Predicted NHL data is data that was predicted using only pre-draft information.

(expand all)
(collapse all)

Projected NHL PPG Predicted NHL PPG Actual Overall Draft
Sam Reinhart (more) 0.729282 0.587848 2
Similar players:Similar superstar:Probabilities:
  • Miss: 9%
  • Star: 21%
Leon Draisaitl (more) 1.131892 0.568445 3
Similar players:Similar superstar:Probabilities:
  • Miss: 10%
  • Star: 13%
Sam Bennett (more) 0.432432 0.187381 4
Similar players:Similar superstar:Probabilities:
  • Miss: 42%
  • Star: 0%
Michael Dal Colle (more) 0.245614 0.358975 5
Similar players:Similar superstar:Probabilities:
  • Miss: 20%
  • Star: 11%
Jake Virtanen (more) 0.334286 0.417634 6
Similar players:Similar superstar:Probabilities:
  • Miss: 35%
  • Star: 0%
Nikolaj Ehlers (more) 0.741972 0.986894 9
Similar players:Similar superstar:Probabilities:
  • Miss: 6%
  • Star: 84%
Nick Ritchie (more) 0.460961 0.379125 10
Similar players:Similar superstar:Probabilities:
  • Miss: 34%
  • Star: 0%
Kevin Fiala (more) 0.561941 0.420741 11
Similar players:Similar superstar:Probabilities:
  • Miss: 33%
  • Star: 1%
Brendan Perlini (more) 0.393305 0.391397 12
Similar players:Similar superstar:Probabilities:
  • Miss: 21%
  • Star: 6%
Jakub Vrana (more) 0.545333 0.000000 13
Similar players:Similar superstar:Probabilities:
  • Miss: 59%
  • Star: 0%
Dylan Larkin (more) 0.851765 0.395481 15
Similar players:Similar superstar:Probabilities:
  • Miss: 33%
  • Star: 10%
Sonny Milano (more) 0.391209 0.804794 16
Similar players:Similar superstar:Probabilities:
  • Miss: 9%
  • Star: 43%
Alex Tuch (more) 0.670118 0.445276 18
Similar players:Similar superstar:Probabilities:
  • Miss: 30%
  • Star: 0%
Nick Schmaltz (more) 0.646897 0.414404 20
Similar players:Similar superstar:Probabilities:
  • Miss: 30%
  • Star: 9%
Robby Fabbri (more) 0.502276 0.406749 21
Similar players:Similar superstar:Probabilities:
  • Miss: 21%
  • Star: 13%
Kasperi Kapanen (more) 0.533137 0.000000 22
Similar players:Similar superstar:Probabilities:
  • Miss: 55%
  • Star: 0%
Conner Bleackley (more) 0.000000 0.383222 23
Similar players:Similar superstar:Probabilities:
  • Miss: 32%
  • Star: 1%
Jared McCann (more) 0.421519 0.370647 24
Similar players:Similar superstar:Probabilities:
  • Miss: 31%
  • Star: 2%
Nikita Scherbak (more) 0.228311 0.422212 26
Similar players:Similar superstar:Probabilities:
  • Miss: 29%
  • Star: 3%
Nikolay Goldobin (more) 0.415929 0.388654 27
Similar players:Similar superstar:Probabilities:
  • Miss: 21%
  • Star: 9%
Josh Ho-Sang (more) 0.521739 0.420913 28
Similar players:Similar superstar:Probabilities:
  • Miss: 30%
  • Star: 7%
Adrian Kempe (more) 0.437666 0.000000 29
Similar players:Similar superstar:Probabilities:
  • Miss: 51%
  • Star: 1%
John Quenneville (more) 0.282051 0.163814 30
Similar players:Similar superstar:Probabilities:
  • Miss: 41%
  • Star: 0%
Brendan Lemieux (more) 0.267057 0.000000 31
Similar players:Similar superstar:Probabilities:
  • Miss: 47%
  • Star: 0%
Jayce Hawryluk (more) 0.285714 0.431437 32
Similar players:Similar superstar:Probabilities:
  • Miss: 31%
  • Star: 2%
Ivan Barbashev (more) 0.322268 0.593787 33
Similar players:Similar superstar:Probabilities:
  • Miss: 21%
  • Star: 46%
Vladislav Kamenev (more) 0.211640 0.000000 42
Similar players:Similar superstar:Probabilities:
  • Miss: 68%
  • Star: 1%
Ryan MacInnis (more) 0.000000 0.000000 43
Similar players:Similar superstar:Probabilities:
  • Miss: 50%
  • Star: 0%
Nicolas Aube-Kubel (more) 0.000000 0.000000 48
Similar players:Similar superstar:Probabilities:
  • Miss: 53%
  • Star: 5%
Vaclav Karabacek (more) 0.000000 0.000000 49
Similar players:Similar superstar:Probabilities:
  • Miss: 59%
  • Star: 5%
Christian Dvorak (more) 0.465374 0.000000 58
Similar players:Similar superstar:Probabilities:
  • Miss: 53%
  • Star: 0%
Dominic Turgeon (more) 0.000000 0.000000 63
Similar players:Similar superstar:Probabilities:
  • Miss: 50%
  • Star: 0%
Juho Lammikko (more) 0.150000 0.000000 65
Similar players:Similar superstar:Probabilities:
  • Miss: 71%
  • Star: 0%
Brayden Point (more) 1.076726 0.444542 79
Similar players:Similar superstar:Probabilities:
  • Miss: 34%
  • Star: 5%
Matt Iacopelli (more) 0.000000 0.164175 83
Similar players:Similar superstar:Probabilities:
  • Miss: 41%
  • Star: 0%
Anton Karlsson (more) 0.000000 0.000000 87
Similar players:Similar superstar:Probabilities:
  • Miss: 82%
  • Star: 0%
Michael Amadio (more) 0.293963 0.387138 90
Similar players:Similar superstar:Probabilities:
  • Miss: 39%
  • Star: 1%
Lucas Wallmark (more) 0.340330 0.000000 97
Similar players:Similar superstar:Probabilities:
  • Miss: 62%
  • Star: 0%
Chase De Leo (more) 0.000000 0.352451 99
Similar players:Similar superstar:Probabilities:
  • Miss: 29%
  • Star: 5%
Christoffer Ehn (more) 0.150000 0.000000 106
Similar players:Similar superstar:Probabilities:
  • Miss: 73%
  • Star: 0%
Viktor Arvidsson (more) 0.731504 0.000000 112
Similar players:Similar superstar:Probabilities:
  • Miss: 63%
  • Star: 0%
Michael Bunting (more) 0.200000 0.390259 117
Similar players:Similar superstar:Probabilities:
  • Miss: 31%
  • Star: 0%
Clark Bishop (more) 0.000000 0.000000 127
Similar players:Similar superstar:Probabilities:
  • Miss: 63%
  • Star: 2%
Shane Gersich (more) 0.000000 0.000000 134
Similar players:Similar superstar:Probabilities:
  • Miss: 49%
  • Star: 0%
Oskar Lindblom (more) 0.402385 0.000000 138
Similar players:Similar superstar:Probabilities:
  • Miss: 46%
  • Star: 1%
Anders Bjork (more) 0.380769 0.184321 146
Similar players:Similar superstar:Probabilities:
  • Miss: 41%
  • Star: 1%
Rourke Chartier (more) 0.076923 0.181955 149
Similar players:Similar superstar:Probabilities:
  • Miss: 41%
  • Star: 0%
Julius Vahatalo (more) 0.000000 0.000000 166
Similar players:Similar superstar:Probabilities:
  • Miss: 71%
  • Star: 0%
Reid Duke (more) 0.000000 0.000000 169
Similar players:Similar superstar:Probabilities:
  • Miss: 50%
  • Star: 0%
Kevin Labanc (more) 0.644670 0.000000 171
Similar players:Similar superstar:Probabilities:
  • Miss: 45%
  • Star: 1%
Samuel Blais (more) 0.000000 0.000000 176
Similar players:Similar superstar:Probabilities:
  • Miss: 70%
  • Star: 0%
Victor Olofsson (more) 0.666667 0.354229 181
Similar players:Similar superstar:Probabilities:
  • Miss: 38%
  • Star: 22%
Pierre Engvall (more) 0.000000 0.000000 188
Similar players:Similar superstar:Probabilities:
  • Miss: 54%
  • Star: 0%
Francis Perron (more) 0.000000 0.000000 190
Similar players:Similar superstar:Probabilities:
  • Miss: 62%
  • Star: 6%
Edgars Kulda (more) 0.000000 0.182512 193
Similar players:Similar superstar:Probabilities:
  • Miss: 43%
  • Star: 0%
Kevin Elgestal (more) 0.000000 0.000000 194
Similar players:Similar superstar:Probabilities:
  • Miss: 46%
  • Star: 0%
Axel Holmstrom (more) 0.000000 0.609651 196
Similar players:Similar superstar:Probabilities:
  • Miss: 22%
  • Star: 30%
Alexander Kadeikin (more) 0.000000 0.000000 201
Similar players:Similar superstar:Probabilities:
  • Miss: 62%
  • Star: 0%
Julien Nantel (more) 0.000000 0.000000 204
Similar players:Similar superstar:Probabilities:
  • Miss: 69%
  • Star: 1%
Projected NHL PPG Predicted NHL PPG
S. Reinhart (more) 0.729282 0.587848
Similar players:Similar superstar:Probabilities:
  • Miss: 9%
  • Star: 21%
L. Draisaitl (more) 1.131892 0.568445
Similar players:Similar superstar:Probabilities:
  • Miss: 10%
  • Star: 13%
S. Bennett (more) 0.432432 0.187381
Similar players:Similar superstar:Probabilities:
  • Miss: 42%
  • Star: 0%
M. Dal (more) 0.245614 0.358975
Similar players:Similar superstar:Probabilities:
  • Miss: 20%
  • Star: 11%
J. Virtanen (more) 0.334286 0.417634
Similar players:Similar superstar:Probabilities:
  • Miss: 35%
  • Star: 0%
N. Ehlers (more) 0.741972 0.986894
Similar players:Similar superstar:Probabilities:
  • Miss: 6%
  • Star: 84%
N. Ritchie (more) 0.460961 0.379125
Similar players:Similar superstar:Probabilities:
  • Miss: 34%
  • Star: 0%
K. Fiala (more) 0.561941 0.420741
Similar players:Similar superstar:Probabilities:
  • Miss: 33%
  • Star: 1%
B. Perlini (more) 0.393305 0.391397
Similar players:Similar superstar:Probabilities:
  • Miss: 21%
  • Star: 6%
J. Vrana (more) 0.545333 0.000000
Similar players:Similar superstar:Probabilities:
  • Miss: 59%
  • Star: 0%
D. Larkin (more) 0.851765 0.395481
Similar players:Similar superstar:Probabilities:
  • Miss: 33%
  • Star: 10%
S. Milano (more) 0.391209 0.804794
Similar players:Similar superstar:Probabilities:
  • Miss: 9%
  • Star: 43%
A. Tuch (more) 0.670118 0.445276
Similar players:Similar superstar:Probabilities:
  • Miss: 30%
  • Star: 0%
N. Schmaltz (more) 0.646897 0.414404
Similar players:Similar superstar:Probabilities:
  • Miss: 30%
  • Star: 9%
R. Fabbri (more) 0.502276 0.406749
Similar players:Similar superstar:Probabilities:
  • Miss: 21%
  • Star: 13%
K. Kapanen (more) 0.533137 0.000000
Similar players:Similar superstar:Probabilities:
  • Miss: 55%
  • Star: 0%
C. Bleackley (more) 0.000000 0.383222
Similar players:Similar superstar:Probabilities:
  • Miss: 32%
  • Star: 1%
J. McCann (more) 0.421519 0.370647
Similar players:Similar superstar:Probabilities:
  • Miss: 31%
  • Star: 2%
N. Scherbak (more) 0.228311 0.422212
Similar players:Similar superstar:Probabilities:
  • Miss: 29%
  • Star: 3%
N. Goldobin (more) 0.415929 0.388654
Similar players:Similar superstar:Probabilities:
  • Miss: 21%
  • Star: 9%
J. Ho-Sang (more) 0.521739 0.420913
Similar players:Similar superstar:Probabilities:
  • Miss: 30%
  • Star: 7%
A. Kempe (more) 0.437666 0.000000
Similar players:Similar superstar:Probabilities:
  • Miss: 51%
  • Star: 1%
J. Quenneville (more) 0.282051 0.163814
Similar players:Similar superstar:Probabilities:
  • Miss: 41%
  • Star: 0%
B. Lemieux (more) 0.267057 0.000000
Similar players:Similar superstar:Probabilities:
  • Miss: 47%
  • Star: 0%
J. Hawryluk (more) 0.285714 0.431437
Similar players:Similar superstar:Probabilities:
  • Miss: 31%
  • Star: 2%
I. Barbashev (more) 0.322268 0.593787
Similar players:Similar superstar:Probabilities:
  • Miss: 21%
  • Star: 46%
V. Kamenev (more) 0.211640 0.000000
Similar players:Similar superstar:Probabilities:
  • Miss: 68%
  • Star: 1%
R. MacInnis (more) 0.000000 0.000000
Similar players:Similar superstar:Probabilities:
  • Miss: 50%
  • Star: 0%
N. Aube-Kubel (more) 0.000000 0.000000
Similar players:Similar superstar:Probabilities:
  • Miss: 53%
  • Star: 5%
V. Karabacek (more) 0.000000 0.000000
Similar players:Similar superstar:Probabilities:
  • Miss: 59%
  • Star: 5%
C. Dvorak (more) 0.465374 0.000000
Similar players:Similar superstar:Probabilities:
  • Miss: 53%
  • Star: 0%
D. Turgeon (more) 0.000000 0.000000
Similar players:Similar superstar:Probabilities:
  • Miss: 50%
  • Star: 0%
J. Lammikko (more) 0.150000 0.000000
Similar players:Similar superstar:Probabilities:
  • Miss: 71%
  • Star: 0%
B. Point (more) 1.076726 0.444542
Similar players:Similar superstar:Probabilities:
  • Miss: 34%
  • Star: 5%
M. Iacopelli (more) 0.000000 0.164175
Similar players:Similar superstar:Probabilities:
  • Miss: 41%
  • Star: 0%
A. Karlsson (more) 0.000000 0.000000
Similar players:Similar superstar:Probabilities:
  • Miss: 82%
  • Star: 0%
M. Amadio (more) 0.293963 0.387138
Similar players:Similar superstar:Probabilities:
  • Miss: 39%
  • Star: 1%
L. Wallmark (more) 0.340330 0.000000
Similar players:Similar superstar:Probabilities:
  • Miss: 62%
  • Star: 0%
C. De (more) 0.000000 0.352451
Similar players:Similar superstar:Probabilities:
  • Miss: 29%
  • Star: 5%
C. Ehn (more) 0.150000 0.000000
Similar players:Similar superstar:Probabilities:
  • Miss: 73%
  • Star: 0%
V. Arvidsson (more) 0.731504 0.000000
Similar players:Similar superstar:Probabilities:
  • Miss: 63%
  • Star: 0%
M. Bunting (more) 0.200000 0.390259
Similar players:Similar superstar:Probabilities:
  • Miss: 31%
  • Star: 0%
C. Bishop (more) 0.000000 0.000000
Similar players:Similar superstar:Probabilities:
  • Miss: 63%
  • Star: 2%
S. Gersich (more) 0.000000 0.000000
Similar players:Similar superstar:Probabilities:
  • Miss: 49%
  • Star: 0%
O. Lindblom (more) 0.402385 0.000000
Similar players:Similar superstar:Probabilities:
  • Miss: 46%
  • Star: 1%
A. Bjork (more) 0.380769 0.184321
Similar players:Similar superstar:Probabilities:
  • Miss: 41%
  • Star: 1%
R. Chartier (more) 0.076923 0.181955
Similar players:Similar superstar:Probabilities:
  • Miss: 41%
  • Star: 0%
J. Vahatalo (more) 0.000000 0.000000
Similar players:Similar superstar:Probabilities:
  • Miss: 71%
  • Star: 0%
R. Duke (more) 0.000000 0.000000
Similar players:Similar superstar:Probabilities:
  • Miss: 50%
  • Star: 0%
K. Labanc (more) 0.644670 0.000000
Similar players:Similar superstar:Probabilities:
  • Miss: 45%
  • Star: 1%
S. Blais (more) 0.000000 0.000000
Similar players:Similar superstar:Probabilities:
  • Miss: 70%
  • Star: 0%
V. Olofsson (more) 0.666667 0.354229
Similar players:Similar superstar:Probabilities:
  • Miss: 38%
  • Star: 22%
P. Engvall (more) 0.000000 0.000000
Similar players:Similar superstar:Probabilities:
  • Miss: 54%
  • Star: 0%
F. Perron (more) 0.000000 0.000000
Similar players:Similar superstar:Probabilities:
  • Miss: 62%
  • Star: 6%
E. Kulda (more) 0.000000 0.182512
Similar players:Similar superstar:Probabilities:
  • Miss: 43%
  • Star: 0%
K. Elgestal (more) 0.000000 0.000000
Similar players:Similar superstar:Probabilities:
  • Miss: 46%
  • Star: 0%
A. Holmstrom (more) 0.000000 0.609651
Similar players:Similar superstar:Probabilities:
  • Miss: 22%
  • Star: 30%
A. Kadeikin (more) 0.000000 0.000000
Similar players:Similar superstar:Probabilities:
  • Miss: 62%
  • Star: 0%
J. Nantel (more) 0.000000 0.000000
Similar players:Similar superstar:Probabilities:
  • Miss: 69%
  • Star: 1%

Correct classifications: 19.0 / 59
Nearly correct classifications: 24.0 / 59
Misses: 16.0 / 59
False Positives: 26.0
False Negatives: 14.0
We could have estimated 27.0 / 59 correctly by guessing all misses.